Giants' Coughlin still whistling past the critics

Football Betting Lines

02/02/2012 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Some of the NFL's greatest coaches were unmistakable in presence.

Hear a gruff voice while watching a 1960's era NFL Films marathon: It's Green Bays Vince Lombardi. See the outline of a hat atop an angular and expressionless face: It's Dallas' Tom Landry. Notice a jutting chin at the end of a powerful jaw line: It's Pittsburghs Bill Cowher.

And come Feb. 5 in Indianapolis, another signature look joins the honor roll. But no, it's not the somber-looking chap in the navy blue hooded sweatshirt. Instead, welcome New York Giants head coach Tom Coughlin to the fraternity for his own go-to facial expression: Middle-aged man with Type A personality with a look resembling someone smelling raw sewage.

Of course, if things go well for Big Blue over 60 on-field minutes at Lucas Oil Stadium, Coughlin resume will have a new line that reads a lot sweeter than his face might project:

Two-time Super Bowl champion.

Perhaps a fitting reward for a sturdy 16-year veteran of the league's short- term sidelines, complete with 142 regular-season wins, nine playoff appearances in two cities and as improbable as a championship run as there's been -- the one that ended with the 10-6 Giants defeating the 16-0 New England Patriots in Super Bowl XLII four years ago.

And surely a far cry from the epitaphs flung in Coughlin direction as recently as two months ago, when a 6-2 start crumbled into a 6-6 crevasse and prompted some to boldly forecast an imminent demise.

"Tom Coughlin has no choice but to reconnect with his team this week, and find something, anything, to restore its credibility," ESPNNewYork columnist Ian OConnor wrote in late November. "If he fails, Coughlin is not going to lose only his cool or his mind. He is going to lose his job."

The piece ran under the hindsight-unfortunate headline of "Coughlin can't weather another collapse."

"For winning that epic Super Bowl, and for standing among the best coaches in franchise history, Coughlin will always have the memories," O'Connor continued.

"Those will be his parting gifts."

But if anyone expected the 65-year-old native of upstate New York to channel North Jersey stadium co-habitant Rex Ryan and mock the media for getting it so far wrong on him yet again -- they don't know Coughlin.

Because it's simply not his style.

"Staying the course, never saying never," he instead said when asked for the mental mantra that propelled him through the latest bout of tough times. Trying to encourage at every point throughout the season, whether it was good or bad, not denying the facts, but nevertheless seeing that we had a talented team and believing in that team.

"Thinking that if we could only get all of these pieces together, maybe we would have a chance to make ourselves recognized. I felt like we were always in contention to win the division, even when things weren't going as well as we'd have liked them."

As it turned out, while Ryan's self-promoting talk petered out as the crosstown-rival Jets crumbled from 7-5 to 8-8, Coughlin steered the Giants to three wins in their last four regular-season tests while capturing a chaotic NFC East and parlaying it into a New England rematch in Super Bowl XLVI following January defeats of seeds No. 5 (Atlanta), No. 1 (Green Bay) and No. 2 (San Francisco), respectively, in the conference.

The Giants' present run is at least vaguely reminiscent of 2007, when while the Patriots were laying waste to foes in record-setting fashion, Coughlin's team trudged along under the spotlight in losing their first two games, then winning six straight and splitting the final eight en route to a 10-6 finish and an NFC Wild Card berth.

That time around, they strung together road playoff defeats of fourth-seeded Tampa Bay, top-seeded Dallas and No. 2 Green Bay -- an NFC Championship Game noteworthy as Brett Favre's final one as a Packer -- before beating the Patriots at Arizona's University of Phoenix Stadium on Eli Manning's fade- route touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress with 35 second left.

It was a nice celebration to a surely epic comeback. But when the Giants failed to replicate their postseason success a year later, then missed the tournament altogether in successive seasons in 2009 and 2010, the keyboard- wielding jackals returned.

While composing a 2011 preview for the Giants, ESPN columnist Dan Graziano fired this verbal warning shot:

"Coughlin survived the collapse of 2009, and the fact that the team won 10 games [in 2010] certainly helped him survive last season's lack of a playoff appearance. But if these Giants bottom out (as their lack of depth could lead them to do), one must wonder if the team will go in another direction at coach, or even if Coughlin might decide to go in a different direction himself.

A bad year in New York could bring about change at a number of spots for the Giants."

Again, well...let's just say reports of the demise were a bit premature.

And the whole debate is enough to make Giants defensive end Justin Tuck laugh.

"This might be the defining career season for him," Tuck said of Coughlin. "I don't see why he wouldn't be the top candidate for Coach of the Year considering the pressure that's on him in New York. It is definitely the type of city that's about 'what have you done for me lately'? And it just seems every year Coach Coughlin's job is up for grabs.

"I know it's a lot of pressure on him and he's always not really wavering either way. You really couldn't tell if he's a coach that has won four Super Bowls in a row or a coach that is on the hot seat all season. He stays even- keeled and kind of stuck to his guns, and believed what this team was going to be about. And I think that has trickled downstairs and trickled throughout this entire franchise."

For his part, Coughlin insists the constant tumult has brought his team closer. In fact, he claimed this week that the unit that captured the NFC title with a 20-17 overtime win against the 49ers at Candlestick Park on Jan. 22 was as galvanized as any he's been a part of. That victory, incidentally, came exactly 77 days after New York beat New England by a 24-20 verdict at Gillette Stadium in Week 9 of the 2011 regular season.

"I understand young people and all that goes with that, but these guys have been able to really create a very strong business-like approach to what they're doing," Coughlin said. "Whether you use the word fellowship or whatever word you want to use, there's a strong, strong feeling among this group. It's been a great source of pride for all of us as coaches."

The Giants' aforementioned Super Bowl win over the Patriots, by the way, came exactly four years ago on the Friday prior to this year's championship game.

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MySportsbook.com will offer comprehensive Nascar betting lines on every race remaining on the Nextel Cup series including driver match-ups, props and odds to win each race. For a complete list of NASCAR odds, please visit www.MySportsbook.com.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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