NHL: Five burning Northwest Division questions

Hockey Betting Lines

09/07/2010 - Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Vancouver Canucks plowed through the Northwest Division with a 15-7-2 mark en route to the third best record in the Western Conference last season. However, their regular season success did not translate to the playoffs, as they fell in the conference semifinals for the second time in the last three years.

Putting the puck in the net was the least of the Canucks' worries, as the team finished with a second-place finish to the Washington Capitals in goals scored. The problem was a defense that allowed three goals or more in 15 of the final 21 regular season games.

Since Vancouver did not employ a shutdown defenseman after Willie Mitchell was lost in mid-January, the likes of Shane O'Brien and Andrew Alberts, and even Kevin Bieksa, averaged just as much ice time as the trio of Christian Ehrhoff, Alex Edler and Sami Salo.

The main question coming into the new season is how much the new additions on defense - Dam Hamhuis (Nashville) and Keith Ballard (Florida) - will help solidify the unit, especially in the playoffs?

Hamhuis (arguably the top free agent defensive defensemen) and Ballard, (third in the league in blocked shots), will play important roles with Vancouver, especially on the penalty kill - an area of weakness all season long, as well as in the playoffs when the Canucks allowed 17 power-play goals on only 54 chances.

With the pressure of an Olympic year on home ice off of goaltender Roberto Luongo, look for the gold medalist netminder to regain his past form and lead Vancouver into the Western Conference finals for the first time since 1994.

CAN COLORADO'S CRAIG ANDERSON REPEAT LAST YEAR'S SUCCESS?

Most prognosticators predicted the Avalanche would finish last in the Northwest Division last season after compiling just 69 points the year before. That was not to be the case, as Colorado stunned the experts with 95 points and a spot in the postseason.

Leading the charge was Craig Anderson, who came into 2009-10 with a grand total of 88 career starts in six career NHL seasons. Tomas Vokoun's former backup in Florida set the city of Denver on fire in his first two games, with wins over San Jose and Vancouver on his way to a 10-2-2 October and an outstanding .939 save percentage.

However, his post-Olympic numbers were pedestrian, with Anderson winning only seven times in 18 games with a 3.28 goals-against average and an .895 save percentage. Some folks pointed to his sizeable workload (71 total starts) as the reason for the late-season demise but how would that account for his tremendous postseason play against San Jose, a series in which he literally stood on his head?

Look for backup Peter Budaj to ease Anderson's load this season, especially since the organization acted quickly in re-signing the five-year veteran well before the July 1 free agency deadline. To that end, Anderson should continue his outstanding play leading the Avalanche to the playoffs for a second straight season.

WILL THE RETURN OF JOKINEN AND TANGUAY PAY DIVIDENDS?

The Flames were rolling along at the midway point of last year with a 24-12-5 mark, but a second-half slide (16-20-5) prevented the club from reaching the postseason for the first time since 2003.

Scoring was a huge problem as the club ranked last in the league with 204 goals. Only two players tallied more than 15, with Jarome Iginla potting 32 and Rene Bourque netting 27 - a far cry from 2008-09 when five forwards hit for 16 or more.

Olli Jokinen never meshed on the top line with Iginla, so last year's trade with the Rangers made sense. Nevertheless, Jokinen was brought back this off- season along with another former Flame, Alex Tanguay - a winger that has seen his goal totals drop each season since the lockout.

Will both forwards help Calgary move up the ladder in goals scored when they failed the first time around? The final answer will not come until the season starts but the prognosis is not a positive one.

CAN MINNESOTA ENJOY A FAST START IN 2010-11?

In college football, it usually takes a full season for a team to adjust to a new coach and his system. If one applies that logic to the NHL, look for the Wild to have a much-improved campaign.

Minnesota got out of the gate slowly last year with a 3-10 record in its first 13 games. In fact, the Wild did not win a game by more than one goal until its 17th contest.

What should be taken from last season was a solid 35-26-8 mark over the final 69 games. More importantly, the team played exceptionally well inside its own division, tying Vancouver with a 15-7-2 record in those contests.

The Wild was also tough to beat at home. Only seven of the other 29 squads won more games in their own building last year, and as luck would have it, eight of this season's first 10 games (after the two matchups with Carolina in Finland) will be played at the Xcel Energy Center.

WILL THE KIDS BE ALRIGHT?

Not much is expected from Edmonton this season except the steady progression of a pair of teenagers and the reigning Canadian Junior player of the year.

Taylor Hall, the 2010 first overall draft choice, and Magnus Paajarvi are the teens, while Jordan Eberle is the elder statesman at 20 years of age.

Only Calgary and Florida scored fewer goals last season than Edmonton, so look for the three youngsters to get ample opportunities to shine. If they can inject some quickness and passion into the team, the Oilers have a chance to climb out of the NHL cellar, especially with Ales Hemsky healthy for the first time since last November.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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Big Ten Conference odds

Teams that should be in: Michigan State, Indiana
Work left to do: Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Iowa

Behind the big two, the pecking order might be in a bit of flux. Has Michigan State passed Indiana after handling the Hoosiers in East Lansing? Where is Illinois in that mix? What looked like a four-big league last week could be morphing into five -- and even six is not unthinkable at this point if everything breaks right.

Should be in:

Michigan State [21-8 (8-6), RPI: 20, SOS: 15] The Spartans made it four-for-four on the homestand, a gigantic accomplishment that leaves them in extremely good shape. MSU is only 1-6 on the road and is at Michigan and at Wisconsin to close things out, meaning the date with the Wolverines on Tuesday looms very, very large. Beating Texas early will hold up well, as will the rout of Bradley and the win over BYU, but will 8-8 be enough? It very well could be, as the computer numbers are good, but why chance it?

Indiana [18-9 (8-6), RPI: 24, SOS: 32] Hmm ... good thing the last two are at Northwestern and home to Penn State, because IU might want to get both to feel completely safe after dropping its third in the last four, fading after halftime at Michigan State. Who knew the best nonconference win would be over Southern Illinois, which is a gift that keeps on giving for the Hoosiers. The win over Wisconsin also looks good on the mantel.

Work left to do:

Illinois [21-9 (9-6), RPI: 31, SOS: 25] A good performance at Penn State leaves the Illini in pretty good shape. Can they go to Iowa and take care of business to really look on their way? That's a huge game, as there is a possible cluster of teams that will end at 9-7. Illinois beat Bradley, but has lost to Xavier. A 9-7 mark and a semifinals trip in Chicago could be enough with the computer profile hanging in there, but it would be better not to mess around, clinching at least a tie for third.

Purdue [18-10 (7-7), RPI: 47, SOS: 28] Couldn't get it done at Iowa, but did win at Northwestern to put 9-7 squarely in sight. Where does that leave the Boilermakers, though? Even if they beat Minnesota and Northwestern at home, that won't help the computer numbers. Nonconference wins over Virginia, DePaul and Oklahoma are solid, but not spectacular. The Boilers very well might need an upset in the B10 quarters to have a legit claim.

Michigan [19-10 (7-7), RPI: 55, SOS: 53] Well, Michigan did what it needed to do, winning at Minnesota to take control of its fate. The Wolverines have Michigan State and an already-wrapped-up-the-league Ohio State at home to close, so the chances are there. Win both and we can talk. There is no marquee win yet in the profile, and the Wolverines were splattered in several games against name opponents. A mediocre computer profile fueled by a lack of road wins isn't helping, either.

Iowa [16-12 (8-6), RPI: 80, SOS: 64] For the sake of being complete, we'll add Iowa, this season's Stanford. It's plausible that the Hawkeyes could get to 10-6 (at Penn State, vs. Illinois left), but where does that leave them after a gruesome nonconference performance where the best win was over ... Toledo? Iowa State? Cornell?? If they get to 10-6, we can start to look at what they need to do in the B10 tourney, although my gut sense is that they would need to make the final and have knocked off Ohio State or Wisconsin on the way to have any real claim.

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